In its annual report “World Energy Outlook”, the International Energy Agency (IEA) presents its forecasts for the medium and long-term development of the global energy supply. This year the Covid – 18 – pandemic plays a decisive role, because from the perspective of the IEA it is causing a turbulent one Year for the global energy system. Whether this accelerates the transition to clean energy and thus benefits international energy and climate goals, or whether the opposite is the case, depends largely on how governments react to the current challenges, according to the IEA in a communication accompanying the report. Don’t miss any news! With our daily newsletter you will receive all the news from heise online from the past 24 hours every morning.

The agency comes to the assessment that the energy demand 2020 Due to the pandemic, it will decrease by about five percent, the CO2 emissions will therefore decrease by seven percent, the energy investments even by 18 percent.

Depending on the scenario, global energy demand will return 2023 or 2025 back to pre-crisis level. The IEA puts renewable energies at the center of its forecasts, with a focus on solar energy. In most countries today, photovoltaics are cheaper than coal- or gas-fired power plants.

Scenario “STEPS” Cover in the scenario “STEPS” (Stated Policies Scenario), which is based on the political intentions and goals announced today renewable energies in the next ten years 24 percent of the world’s rising energy demand. Although hydropower is the largest source of renewable energy, solar energy has more growth potential. For Dr. Fatih Birol, Director of the IEA, solar energy is the queen of the world’s electricity markets. However, the report also states that strong growth in renewable energies must be combined with reliable investments in power grids, which could otherwise become the weak link in the transformation of the power sector.

Depending on the scenario, the IEA from different challenges for fossil fuels. In the Steps forecast, for example, demand for coal is not returning to pre-crisis levels. In the energy mix 2040 it falls under for the first time since the industrial revolution percent. The demand for natural gas is increasing significantly, especially in Asia. The IEA is also confident that the era of growing oil demand will come to an end in the next decade. Nonetheless, today’s political framework would mean that oil demand would soon return to pre-crisis levels.

Think about the weakest In the optimistic “SDS” (Sustainable Development Scenario) scenario, on the other hand, the IEA is assuming a sharp increase in investments in renewable energies – coupled with increased political efforts. This shift in investment in clean energy offers the opportunity to stimulate economic growth, create jobs and reduce emissions. Too few governments would follow this course so far. The IEA named the European Union, Great Britain, Canada, Korea and New Zealand as exceptions.

However, it is already clear that the effects of the corona pandemic will hit the poorest hardest. The IEA cites developments south of the Sahara in Africa as an example. The number of people there who do not have access to electricity is growing again. The rise in poverty levels may also result in basic electricity supplies for more than 100 million people around the world who already had access to it , become unaffordable.

The IEA warns against resting on the record-breaking decline in global emissions this year. This is because this is primarily caused by an economic downturn, which will only lead to the most vulnerable population groups becoming impoverished. IEA Director Birol is therefore calling for rapid structural changes in the way we produce and consume energy. It is up to the governments of the world to accelerate the transition to clean energy and somi