The transition to electromobility will not cost as many jobs at Volkswagen as previously feared. This is what the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering and Organization assumes. They apply their results to the entire industry and in some cases give the all-clear.

The average need for employees will be up to 2029 decrease by 12 percent,. This results less from the changes to the product, but primarily from the development of the number of units and from improvements in process and location-specific factors. “As a result, increasing electromobility itself will only have a small direct effect on employment, but it will be a trigger and catalyst for further optimization in various areas,” the Fraunhofer researchers write.

According to the study, 70 percent more employees are required to manufacture a conventional drive train than to produce an electric drive train. Volkswagen has therefore already taken measures to cut jobs in a socially acceptable manner or to secure employment. The latter includes increasing the number of units and shifting to the production of new components such as battery cells.

The job losses that can occur at Volkswagen as a result of the introduction of digital technology are distributed differently across the divisions. According to the researchers, production and logistics will be most negatively affected by a decline in employment of up to 15, including the introduction of robots and driverless transport vehicles. In return, there will be more planning and administrative tasks in these areas in order to implement and operate the introduced automation technology.

Moderate employment effect In other areas, the employment effect of digitization will be “very moderate”: in procurement between 0 and minus 6 percent, in finance between minus 1 and minus 2 percent and in human resources between plus 3 and minus 5 percent.

On the other hand, digitization could result in a higher employment requirement in the IT area of ​​between plus 2 and plus 3 percent, in sales & marketing between 0 and plus 2 percent and technical development between plus 2 and plus 7 percent.

Intertwined coexistence In terms of the entire automotive industry, the Fraunhofer researchers believe theirs The study relativizes “the sometimes alarming findings of previous publications and invalidates them t common scenarios of one-sided negative employment effects. The transformation of the industry is not uniform, but a “multiple interwoven coexistence of job creation, work upgrading and job loss”.

The national platform future of mobility, which advises the federal government , assumed in January of this year, for example, that by 2030 around 410. 000 Jobs in the automotive industry are at risk.

(anw)